New Zealand Journal of Forestry (1984) 29(1): 24–50
©New Zealand Institute of Forestry
A policy analysis model for New Zealand's plantation forestry system.
R. Y. Cavana and R. G. Coyle
The wood supplies from New Zealand's plantation forests are expected to increase substantially over the next 30-40 years. Although most of the increase will be available for export, New Zealand's future export markets are most uncertain. This paper discusses a system dynamics model which has been developed to analyse, at the national "strategic" level, the interaction between the demand for, and supply of, wood from New Zealand's plantation forests.
The model contains forest area and forest growing stock sectors, planting policies, cutting policies, land purchasing/selling policies, a market sector, a forecasting sector, and a profit and cash flow sector. The model is used to investigate the effects on the New Zealand plantation forestry system of different future demand scenarios, to measure the effects of demand forecasting errors, and to analyse alternative planting and cutting policies. It indicates that some of these factors have a significant effect on system performance and the model thereby contributes to an understanding of the system.