New Zealand Journal of Forestry (2016) 60(4): 29–32
©New Zealand Institute of Forestry

Professional Paper
Analysis of New Zealand forest transactions 2011-2013

Bruce Manley <sup>*,1

1</sup> Head of School at the School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Christchurch. Email: bruce.manley@canterbury.ac.nz
^*Corresponding author.

Abstract: Data from 27 New Zealand forest transactions were analysed and a model developed to predict crop value from the discounted stumpage revenue associated with the average stand in each forest that was sold in 2011-2013. Inputs to the model are average age (adjusted for species mix), total recoverable volume, harvest cost, distance to port and the proportion of pruned area. Parameters in the model are log price, pruned log price differential, unit transport cost and discount rate. Although the model explains 65% of the variation in crop value, it only predicts the value of 20 out of the 27 transactions to within $2,000/ha of the actual value.
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