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New Zealand Journal of Forestry (1996) 41(1): 17–26
©New Zealand Institute of Forestry

Research article
Preferences for scenarips of land-use change in the Mackenzie/Waitaki Basin

J.R. Fairweather and S. R. Swaffield

Earlier research on the effects of land-use change on a range of landforms in the Mackenzie/Waitaki Basin identified three dominant preference themes: for plantations, for a combination of grazing and trees, and for conservation (Fairweather and Swaffield, 1995). These themes were used to generate five scenarios of land-use change for the area, for each of which the detailed visual, economic, and social effects were modelled (Evi-sion and Swaffield, 1994). This article reports on preferences for these scenarios.

The results suggest that preferences for the effects of land-use change are relatively stable, that detailed information on effects had only minor influence upon the ordering of preferences for scenarios, and that levels of acceptability for the preferred scenarios were high. Overall, there was support for a significant increase in plantations, shelterbelts and improved pasture, but wilding management was considered essential. The diversity of preferences suggests that a widening range ofland uses can be expected to occur in the future.

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